CLAY MENTION AT BILLBOARD.COM CHARTBEAT

AND SPEAKING OF CLAY...

Please note the paragraph at the end...a possible opportunity to vote for Clay for the Fans Choice award! -Pamela

Fred,

I would like to have your opinion on what the chances are for Clay Aiken to win an American Music Award.

Love reading your column -- and don't forget Clay's CD coming out on Oct. 14. We are in for a surprise -- there are CD parties being launched by all his fans across the world including Singapore, Germany, etc.

Monique Beauvais
Montreal

Dear Monique,

First, a disclaimer. I write "The American Music Awards." But that doesn't mean I know who the winner is -- I find out the results the same time as everyone else, when the envelopes are opened during the live broadcast.

To predict the winners of the AMAs, it's helpful to know how the voting process works. An independent company polls 20,000 members of the record-buying public. So this is not an award from peers in the music business, it's an award from the public. I think that increases Clay's chances. I'm not saying he wouldn't win a Grammy, but I think that will be tougher for him, as some people in the industry may resist voting for anyone connected to "American Idol."

Personally, I think Clay's toughest competition in the category is Justin Timberlake. We'll have to wait until Nov.16 when the envelope is opened to find out who wins the AMA for favorite pop male artist.

We won't have to wait quite as long to find out where Clay's first album will debut on The Billboard 200. With the release date set for Oct. 14, the album will be eligible to enter the chart for the week ending Nov. 1. That chart will be officially posted on Billboard.com on Oct. 23, though a news story about the chart will be up a day earlier. It will be interesting to see what happens, as Barbra Streisand's new album is also released on Oct. 14. I know Clay's fans will be doing their best to make sure he debuts at No. 1.

By the way, on Monday [Sept. 29], we'll find out who is nominated for the Fan's Choice Award on the AMAs. If Clay is nominated, that's one award his fans will be able to vote for by going to the ABC-TV Web site for the AMAs.

CHARTBEAT